The CMIH and the EPSRC Centre for Predictive Modelling in Healthcare, based at the University of Exeter hosted a one day workshop on ‘Uncertainty Quantification in the Mathematics of Healthcare’ in January, at the Royal Statistics Society.  The workshop bought together academics from the EPSRC healthcare centres, along with others in the field of mathematics of healthcare, to discuss leading issues on uncertainty quantification.  These included the use of mathematical and statistical techniques that enable us to estimate uncertainties, how to reduce them by calibration with data (inverse modelling) and communication of uncertainty.  Talks were given by representatives of each of the EPSRC healthcare centres, as well as from Mark Tarplee (Healthcare Technologies Manager, EPSRC), Dr Gary Mirams (University of Nottingham) and Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter (Winton Centre, University of Cambridge).

The Programme, along with links to talks where available, was as follows:

10:30 Registration/coffee
10:50 Welcome – Professor Peter Challenor (Centre for Predictive Modelling in Healthcare, Exeter)
11:00 Strategy and Vision for the EPSRC Centres for Mathematical Sciences in Healthcare and further opportunities – Mark Tarplee (Healthcare Technologies Manager, EPSRC)
11:30 Uncertainties and variability in cardiac modelling – Dr Gary Mirams (University of Nottingham)
12:15 Joining Uncertainty Quantification across applied mathematics and statistics – Professor John Aston and Dr Carola Schönlieb (Centre for Mathematical Imaging in Healthcare, University of Cambridge)
12:45 Lunch
13:45 Calibration of models with patient data – Professor Peter Challenor (Centre for Predictive Modelling in Healthcare, University of Exeter)
14:15 Communicating risk and uncertainty to patients – Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter (Winton Centre, University of Cambridge)
15:00 The use of credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis to improve clinical classification – Dr Marta Garcia-Finana (Centre for Mathematics in Healthcare, University of Liverpool)
15:15 Insights on the Structure of the MAP Kinase Signalling Pathway by Quantified Uncertainty – Professor Mark Girolami (Centre for Mathematics of Precision Healthcare, Imperial College London)
15:30 Tea/coffee break
16:00 Discussion – the way ahead
16:45 Summary & next steps