Practical Bayesian modelling: Populism, polls, and petitions.

In the days after the referendum concerning the departure of the UK from the EU last year, a petition gathering over 3 million signatures clamoured for a second referendum. This coincided with surveys suggesting significant voter regret. An analysis with a Bayesian hierarchical model is presented, which considers whether indeed the former provides any evidence for or against the latter. The US Presidential election presents another interesting case – we investigate whether the claims of hacking of electronic voting platforms were indeed greatly exaggerated.

• Speaker: Tom Gillam (Cantab Capital Partners)
• Wednesday 08 March 2017, 14:00–15:00
• Venue: MR15 Centre for Mathematical Sciences.
• Series: CCIMI Seminars; organiser: Rachel Furner.